What is the expected completion time for activity g

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Is there a single word which can replace the phrase "Estimated time of Completion"? Let's say it is for a job that needs to be completed, I'd rather not put ETA Estimated Time of Arrival as it is not necessarily arriving.

If there isn't a single word, is there a widely used acronym for this context?

what is the expected completion time for activity g

You might consider the word duration. As Dan mentioned in comments though, it's quite acceptable to use ETA for just about any "estimated times".

what is the expected completion time for activity g

You can say of a software project that "the next version drops in two weeks" to mean that it is expected to be released and therefore "complete" at least to some definition of "complete" for that version in that duration. People sometimes ask "how long until version X drops?

From that you could use "drop date" perhaps to refer to a specific completion date, if two words are acceptable. In military terms, ETC means estimated time of completion. Don't use ETA if you are already there. Example: When is the completion date for room 3 curtains and trimmings? Start date, end date. Start time, end time.

Target date, actual complete date, etc. Usually what each of these specifically mean is defined at the start of a project, so that everyone uses consistent language, to avoid confusion. Sign up to join this community.

The best answers are voted up and rise to the top. Home Questions Tags Users Unanswered. Asked 2 years, 10 months ago. Active 8 months ago. Viewed 31k times. I have considered ETC but wasn't sure if it is widely used.

Script47 Script47 1 1 gold badge 3 3 silver badges 10 10 bronze badges. I use ETA estimated time of arrival for all "estimated times", whether they're arrivals, completions, pizzas, etc. My guess is the existence of that word is strong evidence that no single-word replacement exists that most people would recognize.

ETC is used in my line of work. Jim I'm not aware how widely that is used, it has actually been considered. Thanks for the input. Active Oldest Votes. How about time frame? OD: time frame : A specified period of time in which something occurs or is planned to take place.

Richard Kayser Richard Kayser Just to nitpick but the date of the drop could be different than the date of completion. Jim yes, good point - it does tend to relate to "delivery" rather than "completion".

However the two could be the same depending on the expectations of the recipient. Other words: Start date, end date.The purpose is to identify the boundaries for the best case, worst case, and most likely project finish time critical path.

Moreover, to identify the critical path activities that have the most bearing on project completion. Some tasks can occur simultaneously in parallel and others must take place only when other s are completed first in series.

Some activities may need to be only partially completed to allow another one to begin. A newer company is in the process of qualifying new direct material suppliers. There is some historical data available but some of the estimated timing is based on assumptions. The Six Sigma Black Belt is tasked with creating the activity network diagram, and developing the best-case, most-likely, and worst-case lead times to approve new suppliers.

The general steps and data are shown below with the performance based on history, sample trials, or judgement. Then, once the four parallel steps are complete, Step J can begin. Then the last two steps are K and L in that order. We'll get to that in a minute. Given the information provided in the table what are the takeaways? The goal is achievable. Notice the best-case scenarios of all the "series" event plus the longest "parallel" event took It can be done if all the best cases are virtually repeatable and variation is minimized.

Highlighted in yellow, the data shows that there are outliers in some activities and most notably, within the rework loops during the Financial approval process, Step G. Notice that there was at least one instance took 27 days but it is possible to do this step in 3 days. There was possibly some back and forth discussion between Finance and the Supplier that should be investigated or a unique situation that caused the 27 day event.

A team should investigate this variation and start improvements here. The team may use an Affinity Diagram to list all the steps and post them in an organized manner and include some of the unusual or "what-if" situations that could impact the process. This tool works for more than processes.

How to Determine the Critical Path & Expected Completion Time

Use it whenever there are numerous ideas, steps, or possibilities, to help organize the thoughts. It is most important to gather all the activities using whatever methods necessary. You can simplify later for create a simpler diagram but at least you learn more about the process. This is similar to the Process Mapping exercise. Based on the information given, it appears there are some special cause situations that are creating a lot of variability and likely those are creating non-normal data and the measure of central tendency may not be the mean.

Project Mngt Chapter 9

So, it is very important to analyze the activities for those unique situations. Perhaps, a few improvements on the "outliers" will be enough to reach the objective. Furthermore, the improvements made to some process or machine, etc. The nodes also called processes or steps indicate the major steps involved within the entire activity.

Similar to a process map, use arrows to connect the nodes to indicate the flow of the process. You may indicate this timing with a range as shown above that illustrates there is clearly some data that is not normal and the median should be considered. Also, of value are the minimum fastest case and maximum slowest case for each step.

If data is not available, then the team or people with the most knowledge, will have to help provide the average, best-case, and worst-case for each step. As a Project Manager, ask the tough questions about what creates challenges, what takes most time, the causes of delays and understand the sources of variation. This careful review is the most important identification point that can come out of this exercise.

How to calculate expected duration, variance, and standard deviation of an activity

When activities begin to branch out and go in parallel, it is key to identify which of them will take the longest or have highest variability in completion time. The critical path is a line or path that encompasses the path of nodes that have the longest completion time. If using the mean, then that path could be different if considering the ranges from each node.Before any activity begins related to the work of a project, every project requires an advanced, accurate time estimate.

Without an accurate estimate, no project can be completed within the budget and the target completion date. Developing an estimate is a complex task. If the project is large and has many stakeholders, things can be more complex. Therefore, there have been many initiatives to come up with different techniques for estimation phase of the project in order to make the estimation more accurate.

The pilot project was for developing Ballistic Missiles and there have been thousands of contractors involved. After PERT methodology was employed for this project, it actually ended two years ahead of its initial schedule. At the core, PERT is all about management probabilities. Therefore, PERT involves in many simple statistical methods as well. Same as most of other estimation techniques, PERT also breaks down the tasks into detailed activities. Then, a Gantt chart will be prepared illustrating the interdependencies among the activities.

Then, a network of activities and their interdependencies are drawn in an illustrative manner. In this map, a node represents each event. The activities are represented as arrows and they are drawn from one event to another, based on the sequence. When it comes to deriving the estimates, the PERT model takes a statistical route to do that. We will cover more on this in the next two sections. In PERT, these three estimate times are derived for each activity. This is the fastest time an activity can be completed.

For this, the assumption is made that all the necessary resources are available and all predecessor activities are completed as planned. Most of the times, project managers are asked only to submit one estimate. In that case, this is the estimate that goes to the upper management. This is the maximum time required to complete an activity.

In this case, it is assumed that many things go wrong related to the activity. A lot of rework and resource unavailability are assumed when this estimation is derived. The expected completion time E is calculated as below:. Then, the total of all Es are taken.

This is the overall expected completion time for the project. Now, the corresponding V is added to each activity of the critical path. This is the variance for the entire project. This is done only for the activities in the critical path as only the critical path activities can accelerate or delay the project duration. Then, standard deviation of the project is calculated. This equals to the square root of the variance V.Complex projects require a series of activities, some of which must be performed sequentially and others that can be performed in parallel with other activities.

This collection of series and parallel tasks can be modeled as a network. CPM is a deterministic method that uses a fixed time estimate for each activity. While CPM is easy to understand and use, it does not consider the time variations that can have a great impact on the completion time of a complex project. PERT was developed in the late 's for the U.

Navy's Polaris project having thousands of contractors. It has the potential to reduce both the time and cost required to complete a project. In a project, an activity is a task that must be performed and an event is a milestone marking the completion of one or more activities. Before an activity can begin, all of its predecessor activities must be completed. Project network models represent activities and milestones by arcs and nodes.

Estimate PERT Expected Time Duration Calculator

PERT originally was an activity on arc network, in which the activities are represented on the lines and milestones on the nodes. Over time, some people began to use PERT as an activity on node network. For this discussion, we will use the original form of activity on arc.

The PERT chart may have multiple pages with many sub-tasks. The following is a very simple example of a PERT diagram:. The milestones generally are numbered so that the ending node of an activity has a higher number than the beginning node. Incrementing the numbers by 10 allows for new ones to be inserted without modifying the numbering of the entire diagram.

The activities in the above diagram are labeled with letters along with the expected time required to complete the activity. The activities are the tasks required to complete the project.

The milestones are the events marking the beginning and end of one or more activities. It is helpful to list the tasks in a table that in later steps can be expanded to include information on sequence and duration.

This step may be combined with the activity identification step since the activity sequence is evident for some tasks. Other tasks may require more analysis to determine the exact order in which they must be performed. Using the activity sequence information, a network diagram can be drawn showing the sequence of the serial and parallel activities. For the original activity-on-arc model, the activities are depicted by arrowed lines and milestones are depicted by circles or "bubbles".

If done manually, several drafts may be required to correctly portray the relationships among activities. Software packages simplify this step by automatically converting tabular activity information into a network diagram. Weeks are a commonly used unit of time for activity completion, but any consistent unit of time can be used. A distinguishing feature of PERT is its ability to deal with uncertainty in activity completion times. For each activity, the model usually includes three time estimates:.

Optimistic time - generally the shortest time in which the activity can be completed.

Most likely time - the completion time having the highest probability. Note that this time is different from the expected time. Pessimistic time - the longest time that an activity might require. Three standard deviations from the mean is commonly used for the pessimistic time. PERT assumes a beta probability distribution for the time estimates. For a beta distribution, the expected time for each activity can be approximated using the following weighted average:.

To calculate the variance for each activity completion time, if three standard deviation times were selected for the optimistic and pessimistic times, then there are six standard deviations between them, so the variance is given by:. The critical path is determined by adding the times for the activities in each sequence and determining the longest path in the project. The critical path determines the total calendar time required for the project.B path with the fewest activities.

C path with the most activities. D longest time path through the network. B latest time that an activity can be started without delaying the entire project. C earliest time that an activity can start without violation of precedence requirements.

D latest time that an activity can be finished without delaying the entire project. B shortest amount of time that could be required to complete the activity. C amount of time that you would expect it would take to complete the activity.

D difference between the expected completion time of the project using pessimistic times and the expected completion time of the project using optimistic times.

E amount of time that an activity can be delayed without delaying the entire project. B assumes that activity time estimates follow the normal probability distribution. C is a network technique that uses three time estimates for each activity in a project. D is a deterministic network technique that allows for project crashing. C is a deterministic network technique that allows for project crashing. D is a network technique that allows three time estimates for each activity in a project.

B replan, reschedule, and reallocate resources such as manpower and finances. C plan, schedule, monitor, and control large and complex projects. B the modal time of a beta distribution. C a simple average of the most optimistic, most likely, and most pessimistic times. D the square root of the sum of the variances of the activities on the critical path.

All times are in weeks. Assume the normal distribution is appropriate to use to determine the probability of finishing by a particular time. If you wished to find the probability of finishing the project in 20 weeks or fewer, it would be necessary to find the variance and then the standard deviation to be used with the normal distribution.

What variance would be used? What is the probability that the project is finished in 16 weeks or fewer?Getting a large project completed on schedule requires advanced planning and attention to detail. Diagramming the project workflow and determining the critical path gives you the expected length that everything will take from inception to completion. For that to be accurate, you need to do a thorough job estimating how long each task will take.

To determine the critical path, divide each project into smaller tasks and note dependencies between them. List the related tasks in the order they must take place and note the earliest date they can start and finish without causing the next activity to be delayed.

Write out the relationships between tasks as a network diagram, and find the path with the longest duration. To estimate how long it will take to complete a task, you need an estimate of the available resources.

what is the expected completion time for activity g

If this is a project where equipment plays a key role, get that firmed up as well. Also note any schedule constraints, like whether a holiday will interrupt the work week, or whether a competing project threatens to siphon off some of your staff by a certain date. Getting an accurate completion time ideally involves the input of the workers in charge of performing the tasks. Balance that feedback against historical data and lessons learned from your past projects, as well as industry averages.

This serves as a check against schedule padding, in which someone might offer an overestimation of the required time to provide some wriggle room. Also take into account external factors that could alter the schedule. There are a number of techniques for doing so. In one-point estimating, you simply provide one time estimate for how long an activity will take.

Analogous estimating takes into account prior history and uses that as a predictor of present task length. Parametric estimating relies on the relationship between activity variables to come up with a time, while heuristics simply estimates everything by using a rule of thumb, such as setting up the site always takes up 20 percent of the project time. The most comprehensive way of estimating completion times is by using the Program Evaluation and Review Technique. PERT uses risk management techniques to account for the possibility that a project may be completed ahead of schedule or suffer unanticipated delays.

You come up with three different time lengths: the realistic amount of time it is most likely to take, an optimistic assessment, and a pessimistic assessment. Multiply the realistic time by four, add the positive and negative time scenarios, and divide the result by six.

That's the time you'd use for estimating task length when compiling the activities to determine the critical path. Six Methods for the Estimation of Activity Duration in Cushion Time in Project Planning.PERT is a project management technique used to plan, schedule, and control complex projects.

This Workspirited article discusses what the PERT formula is, and how it is used to estimate a project duration, with examples. Would you like to write for us? Well, we're looking for good writers who want to spread the word.

Get in touch with us and we'll talk A project is a set of interrelated activities that must be executed in a certain logical sequence to complete the entire task. Every activity in a project requires time and resources for its completion. It cannot be initiated unless the other preceding activities are completed.

what is the expected completion time for activity g

Managing an entire project is a challenging job performed by a project manager; however, before the project goes on the floor, he has to perform a crucial task of providing an estimation of the project cost and duration to the client.

We shall discuss what is PERT, and how it is used to calculate the expected project completion time. PERT is a project scheduling technique which uses three estimates per activity to get the final estimate for the project duration. Before we begin to use PERT, we need to be familiar with the following keywords:. Also known as the PERT diagram, it is a pictorial representation of all the activities involved in the project.

The diagram is easy to understand, since it describes the logical relationships among the activities and the milestones they reach upon completion. The activities are denoted by arrows, while the milestones are denoted by nodes on the network diagram. Generally, the activities are named alphabetically, while the milestones are named numerically.

It is the longest time path on the network, which indicates that it is the longest time it takes to complete a project. Delay in any activity along the critical path will delay the project completion time. All activities on this path have a slack time of zero. It is the amount of time an activity can be delayed before the project finish date is delayed. Formula to calculate the slack time is:.

The estimated time to complete a project can be computed if we have the pessimistic T poptimistic T oand most likely T m estimates of all the activities involved in the project. The estimated time for an activity to be completed can be calculated using the following PERT equation:. The PERT equation is a weighted average, where the most likely estimate is weighted 4 times more heavily than the optimistic and pessimistic estimates.

This prevents the PERT output from being too heavily inclined in one direction. Consider a scenario where you estimate that a task will get completed in 6 hours T o if everything goes right.

The same task is estimated to be completed in 24 hours T p if everything goes wrong, while under normal circumstances, it is mostly likely to get completed in 12 hours T m. Using the PERT formula, we get:. We observe that the estimated duration of an activity 13 is just slightly inclined towards the pessimistic value 24since the result is still weighted heavily towards the most likely value The formulae are given below:.

The value of standard deviation can be subsequently used to calculate the probability of completing an activity within a specified range. The higher the probability, the higher is the confidence level of completing the activity, and vice versa.